Regulator Takes A Punt On 2022 Rooftop Solar Figures

Australia’s Clean Energy Regulator (CER) has estimated how much rooftop solar will be installed in Australia this year. All things considered, it’s a pretty impressive number.

The CER’s September Quarterly Carbon Market Report (QCMR) released yesterday indicates an estimated 729 megawatts of small-scale solar power systems were installed during the quarter, quite an uptick on earlier in 2022 and heading back towards to the very high Q3 level seen in 2021 (755 MW).

CER Chair David Parker noted more installations of rooftop solar systems occurred after an increase in enquiries by Australians looking to go solar that began in July.

If the current trend continues, the Regulator expects total installed capacity in 2022 will be about 2.7 gigawatts. But even with the big boost in the latter part of this year, it won’t be a record and will break a winning run. The record was set last year – a whopping 3.2 gigawatts made up of approximately 380,000 systems and the fifth record-breaking year.

Installed capacity in 2022 to the end of September totalled 1.9 GW; down 19% from 2021, but much better than the 27% decline in the first half the year.

The cumulative total of small scale solar installed in Australia as at the end of last year was around 17 gigawatts of capacity. Assuming the 2.7 gigawatts for 2022 is reached, we’ll be within spitting distance of 20. According to the data from the Clean Energy Regulator’s web site, the cumulative tally was around 18.2 gigawatts as at the end of September.

But that’s not all that would have been installed to that point. The Regulator compiles its figures based on STC creations – the bits of virtual paper that form the basis of Australia’s “solar rebate“. While the rebate is provided as an up-front subsidy, STCs can’t be created until a system is installed, and they can be created up to 12 months after the installation.

This means while we might get a pretty good estimation by late January of total capacity installed in 2022, it won’t be absolutely spot on – but near enough.

Electricity Prices Trigger Solar Rush

2022 was looking a bit ordinary for solar installation interest for much of the first half of this year – still reasonably healthy, but less so than previous years. The first signs of a rush began here on SolarQuotes during the tail end of  May rather than July; ahead of electricity price rises in July for many Australians.

This was followed by news trickling in of potentially more significant electricity price rises on the horizon, then a flood of it. This has sustained a much higher number of solar and battery quote requests here on SQ compared to earlier in the year.

In its report, the Clean Energy regulator notes:

“If retail energy prices increase next year to the level some are predicting, the average pay back period for a rooftop solar system could decline from about 4 years to 3 years, still making it an excellent investment.”

That’s good news, but simple payback periods vary greatly depending on a number of factors including location and energy consumption profile. To get a better idea of simple payback in your situation, try the SolarQuotes solar calculator.

Original Source: https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/regulator-solar-tally-mb2720/